The Chase is upon us, and the new elimination format means that we've got a lot of new possibilities for determining a champion. While we can only determine so much from statistics, we can get an idea of who should be in good shape, and who ought to be very careful, based on historical performance at each of the 10 Chase tracks.
Here, we break down the best and worst at each Chase track, including the winner this season. And since Chase participant AJ Allmendinger has had a history of, shall we say, underperforming cars, we also added the second-worst for comparison's sake at tracks where he ran the worst. We begin in the Windy City:
Chicagoland Speedway
Best average finisher, last 10 races: Jimmie Johnson, 8.9
Worst average finisher, last 10 races: Denny Hamlin, 20.5
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Winner earlier this season:� Brad Keselowski
Best average finisher: Denny Hamlin, 8.9
Worst average finisher, last 10 races: AJ Allmendinger, 24.2
Worst non-Allmendinger: Aric Almirola, 21.2
Dover Speedway
Winner earlier this season: Jimmie Johnson
Best average finisher, last 10 races: Jimmie Johnson, 8.4
Worst average finisher, last 10 races: AJ Allmendinger, 27.8
Worst non-Allmendinger: Kasey Kahne, 21.0
Kansas Speedway
Winner earlier this season: Jeff Gordon
Best average finisher, last 10 races: Jimmie Johnson, 8.4
Worst average finisher, last 10 races: AJ Allmendinger, 22.8
Worst non-Allmendinger: Kyle Busch, 22.7
Charlotte Motor Speedway
Winner earlier this season: Jimmie Johnson
Best average finisher, last 10 races: Joey Logano, 10.5
Worst average finisher, last 10 races: AJ Allmendinger, 22.7
Worst non-Allmendinger: Kurt Busch, 19.7
Talladega Superspeedway
Winner earlier this season: Denny Hamlin
Best average finisher, last 10 races: Dale Earnhardt Jr., 15.0
Worst average finisher, last 10 races: AJ Allmendinger, 23.4
Worst non-Allmendinger: Kasey Kahne, 21.5
Martinsville Speedway
Winner earlier this season: Kurt Busch
Best average finisher: Jimmie Johnson, 5.2
Worst average finisher: Aric Almirola, 24.0
Texas Motor Speedway
Winner earlier this season: Joey Logano
Best average finisher: Matt Kenseth, 8.2
Worst average finisher: AJ Allmendinger, 21.7
Worst non-Allmendinger: Aric Almirola, 19.6
Phoenix International Raceway
Winner earlier this season: Kevin Harvick
Best average finisher: Jimmie Johnson, 6.3
Worst average finisher: Aric Almirola, 18.6
Homestead-Miami Speedway
Best average finisher: Carl Edwards, 6.6
Worst average finisher: Kyle Busch, 21.3
What can we divine from this? Well, Allmendinger and Almirola are going to have to overcome a lot of history to advance out of even the first round of knockouts. And Johnson can all but write his name in the Homestead Final Four in Sharpie. Recent performance suggests Logano, Harvick, Gordon, and Keselowski will be in the mix late as well.
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Jay Busbee is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at jay.busbee@yahoo.com or find him on Facebook or on Twitter.
Eugene Chaboud Jay Chamberlain Karun Chandhok Alain de Changy
